Hot or Not? Redfin Tests the Temperature of January’s Hottest Neighborhood Predictions

In January, we published our annual Hottest Neighborhoods report, identifying the 10 neighborhoods in the country that we predicted would see fast growth in home values this year, based on Redfin.com user data and insights from local Redfin agents. Nine of the 10 neighborhoods in the January report are in San Jose.

Now we’re checking back to see if these California neighborhoods outperformed in home value growth as predicted. We’re also identifying the hottest three neighborhoods in the largest metro areas to close out the year.

18.9-Hot-or-Not-Revisiting-the-Hottest-Neighborhoods-of-2018-2x

To assess the accuracy of our predictions, we calculated median home sale price growth in each neighborhood between December 2017 and July 2018. If home prices grew, the neighborhood was confirmed “hot.” If home prices declined, the neighborhood was deemed “cool.”

Rank
Neighborhood
City
Metro Area
Median Sale Price  (July 2018)
Median Sale Price (December 2017)
Percent Change
Temperature
Avg Sale-to-List Price Ratio*
% of Homes Sold Above List Price*
1
Bucknall
San Jose
San Jose
$1,661,500
$1,565,000
6.2%
Hot
100.1%
89.0%
2
Cambrian
San Jose
San Jose
$1,320,000
$1,244,000
6.1%
Hot
108.3%
73.7%
3
White Oak
Campbell
San Jose
$967,500
$1,010,000
-4.2%
Cool
109.0%
75.0%
4
Ortega
Sunnyvale
San Jose
$1,237,000
$1,920,000
-35.6%
Cool
110.8%
86.2%
5
West Santa Clara
Santa Clara
San Jose
$1,400,000
$1,237,500
13.1%
Hot
112.4%
82.4%
6
Sunnyvale West
Sunnyvale
San Jose
$2,106,500
$1,945,000
8.3%
Hot
114.3%
89.2%
7
Lakewood
Sunnyvale
San Jose
$1,355,000
$1,200,000
12.9%
Hot
100.1%
87.0%
8
Sunnyside
San Francisco
San Francisco
$1,387,750
$1,272,500
9.1%
Hot
100.3%
91.0%
9
Blacow
Fremont
San Jose
$1,060,999
$1,005,000
5.6%
Hot
107.6%
81.0%
10
Rex Manor
Mountain View
San Jose
$1,670,000
$1,500,000
11.3%
Hot
100.2%
100.0%
Median sale price growth between December 2017 and July 2018.

Eight of our 10 picks for the Hottest Neighborhoods in 2018 were spot on with price growth above 5 percent between December 2017 and July 2018. Our top pick, Bucknall (San Jose), saw prices grow 6.2 percent during that period, and 89 percent of homes sold above their asking price. Our second pick, Cambrian (San Jose), saw 6.1 percent price growth.

Redfin Silicon Valley agent Kalena Masching is not surprised that these neighborhoods saw strong price growth. Masching believes that both Cambrian and Bucknall will continue to be hot neighborhoods.

“Especially as buyers are priced out of the peninsula areas, many of these neighborhoods offer relative price savings,” said Masching. “Bucknall offers a great community vibe. It’s very walkable and also has a desirable commute. Homes in Cambrian are more affordable relative to Bucknall and the nearby areas with similar amenities. New tech campuses moving into downtown and West San Jose provide Cambrian homeowners an easy commute without being right in the middle of the city.”

West Santa Clara (Santa Clara), Lakewood (Sunnyvale), and Rex Manor (Mountain View) all experienced price growth above 10 percent.

Masching explains, “Lakewood has been hot for years, especially with home prices about a million dollars less than nearby Sunnyvale West. Similarly, Rex Manor is significantly more affordable than the surrounding parts of Mountain View. It’s a great place to get your foot in the door if you’re under a $2 million budget and want to be in Mountain View.”

White Oak and Ortega were the two predicted hottest neighborhoods, where prices actually declined between December and July.

“I’ve noticed in Ortega that single family homes are staying on the market a lot longer. Additionally, almost all of the sales from May and June were townhomes and condos, which has a lowering effect on the prices” said Masching.

What Neighborhoods Are Hot in your Metro Area?

Below we’ve ranked the top three hottest neighborhoods in each major metro area so you can see what places in your city are likely to be the most popular among buyers for the remainder of 2018. These places were identified using our Hottest Neighborhoods algorithm, which ranks neighborhoods based on increases in favorites and visits to home listings on Redfin.com.

Metro Area
Rank
Neighborhood
Median Sale Price*
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio*
% of Homes that Sold Above List Price*
Median Days on Market*
Atlanta, GA
1
Mozley Park
$226,950
95.8%
31.3%
13.5
2
Decatur Heights
$362,000
98.8%
28.6%
11
3
Sandtown
$312,750
97.2%
14.3%
90
Austin, TX
1
North Lamar
$237,000
98.5%
42.1%
7
2
Southeast Austin
$230,000
100.1%
35.6%
6.5
3
Pecan Springs Springdale
$320,000
98.9%
37.0%
10.5
Bakersfield, CA
1
Silver Creek
$235,000
99.1%
2.6%
18
2
Tevis Ranch
$254,990
100.1%
8.0%
31
3
Stockdale West
$299,950
100.0%
8.3%
39.5
Baltimore, MD
1
River Hill
$701,250
99.1%
16.7%
35
2
Harpers Choice
$311,250
99.8%
30.4%
36
3
Brooklyn Park
$185,950
98.5%
29.4%
40
Boston, MA
1
Suffolk Square
$380,000
106.6%
84.2%
8
2
West Street-River Street
$440,275
101.7%
61.8%
11
3
Southern Mattapan
$397,000
100.1%
22.2%
17
Charlotte, NC
1
Moores Chapel
$168,250
94.8%
12.5%
39
2
Belmont
$313,875
99.0%
31.3%
41
3
Villa Heights
$382,500
98.7%
31.8%
40
Chicago, IL
1
McKinley Park
$257,875
98.5%
18.8%
60.5
2
Chicago Lawn
$130,000
101.0%
37.9%
43
3
Back of the Yards
$80,000
103.7%
44.8%
23
Cincinnati, OH
1
Turpin Hills
$369,000
98.0%
20.0%
72
2
Mount Airy
$125,000
97.1%
21.6%
52
3
Mount Lookout
$375,000
97.8%
17.9%
59
Cleveland, OH
1
Boulevard
$307,500
95.8%
0.0%
70
2
Moreland
$73,000
92.5%
0.0%
121
3
Fernway
$236,000
95.4%
5.0%
82
Denver, CO
1
Genesse Central
$934,500
98.9%
10.0%
24
2
Turnberry
$395,000
99.8%
23.1%
23
3
Edgewater
$505,000
102.6%
66.7%
5.5
Fort Lauderdale, FL
1
Oakwood
$391,850
96.3%
16.7%
53
2
Crossings
$380,000
97.9%
16.7%
48
3
Lagomar
$342,550
97.4%
4.2%
44
Hampton Roads, VA
1
Old Towne
$172,250
94.9%
0.0%
84
2
Park Place
$169,900
96.2%
29.3%
65
3
Colonial Place-Riverview
$275,000
98.6%
17.1%
29
Houston, TX
1
Fourth Ward
$311,000
97.9%
6.9%
57
2
Kashmere Gardens
$76,500
88.4%
0.0%
49
3
Langham Creek
$149,500
98.8%
25.0%
10.5
Jacksonville, FL
1
Biscayne
$169,500
99.3%
33.3%
42
2
Jamestown
$234,900
97.7%
6.7%
21
3
Duclay
$183,000
98.6%
25.0%
29.5
Las Vegas, NV
1
Cadence
$397,349
98.9%
9.5%
46
2
Valley West
$291,000
98.8%
33.3%
47
3
The Crossing
$316,500
98.4%
32.7%
44
Long Island, NY
1
East Hills
$1,150,000
95.2%
8.3%
44.5
2
Gordon Heights
$256,500
102.0%
54.6%
29
3
Glen Head
$660,000
98.2%
23.5%
35
Los Angeles, CA
1
East Pasadena
$1,108,500
98.4%
23.5%
57
2
Citrus Grove
$662,500
99.4%
50.0%
54.5
3
Amar-Lark Ellen
$400,000
101.7%
60.0%
37
Memphis, TN
1
Lakes of Forest Hill
$279,900
97.2%
10.3%
43.5
2
Voillintine-Evergreen
$168,500
96.6%
15.6%
36.5
3
Normandy Meadows East
$240,000
99.7%
34.8%
28
Miami, FL
1
Crestview
$272,500
96.3%
18.2%
24
2
Buena Vista
$309,000
95.1%
19.4%
39
3
Silver Bluff
$450,000
95.5%
5.7%
83.5
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
1
West Frogtown
$173,050
104.7%

 
66.7%
21
2
Bryn Mawr
$396,000
98.2%
38.9%
21
3
Fern Hill
$415,000
102.2%
47.4%
29.5
New Orleans, LA
1
Irish Channel
$472,500
98.6%
11.1%
79
2
Dillard
$220,000
91.9%
0.0%
79
3
Gentilly Terrace
$179,770
96.3%
17.1%
64
Oakland, CA
1
Grimmer
$1,070,000
115.2%
100.0%
10
2
Merriewood
$1,255,000
122.7%
82.1%
14
3
North Fremont
$1,210,000
113.8%
93.6%
9
Orange County, CA
1
College Park East
$876,250
99.7%
50.0%
38
2
Travis Ranch
$910,000
99.4%
28.6%
52
3
Covenant Hills Village
$1,670,000
97.2%
0.0%
89
Orlando, FL
1
Randall-Johnson
$350,800
98.9%
14.8%
35.5
2
Falcon Trace
$290,000
97.3%
10.5%
46
3
Live Oak Reserve
$466,450
98.8%
16.7%
16
Philadelphia, PA
1
Ardmore
$715,000
97.2%
11.8%
70
2
Somerton
$99,500
97.7%
37.0%
36
3
Villanova
$240,000
97.9%
11.5%
76
Phoenix, AZ
1
Emperor Estates
$322,500
98.9%
28.6%
43
2
O’Neil Ranch
$190,500
101.1%
61.1%
43.5
3
Central City South
$139,000
98.2%
31.6%
34
Pittsburgh, PA
1
East Liberty
$346,000
94.3%
11.1%
81
2
Reserve Township
$137,900
98.0%
28.6%
58
3
Squirrel Hill North
$617,500
94.2%
21.4%
80
Portland, OR
1
Overlook
$450,250
101.6%
41.7%
7
2
Maplewood
$550,000
100.1%
25.0%
9
3
Reed
$478,750
100.5%
66.7%
23
Providence, RI
1
Hebronville
$306,000
100.7%
33.3%
29
2
Flint
$205,000
97.4%
34.5%
16
3
East Side Attleboro
$280,000
100.0%
48.0%
31
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA
1
Warm Sands
$321,900
97.9%
9.1%
63
2
Alessandro Heights
$730,000
98.0%
17.7%
108
3
San Antonio Heights
$847,000
98.5%
35.7%
68
Sacramento, CA
1
Midtown
$664,250
100.2%
43.8%
58.5
2
Howe Edison
$260,000
101.6%
77.8%
8
3
Colonial Village North
$285,000
101.0%
41.7%
23
San Antonio, TX
1
Denver Heights
$122,950
96.0%
0.0%
43
2
Whispering Oaks
$274,000
100.2%
42.9%
24
3
Encino Park
$290,939
99.9%
25.0%
30.5
San Diego, CA
1
La Playa
$2,200,000
95.7%
10.0%
76
2
Egger Highlands
$500,000
99.4%
31.3%
26
3
La Costa Oaks
$1,355,025
99.8%
50.0%
14
San Francisco, CA
1
Millbrae
$1,653,000
115.7%
85.7%
14
2
Mission Terrace
$1,150,000
115.3%
84.6%
18
3
Oceanview
$1,177,500
121.1%
83.3%
19
San Jose, CA
1
Monta Loma-Farley-Rock Street
$1,639,000
118.8%
96.8%
8
2
Midtown
$1,025,000
110.1%
85.0%
15
3
San Antonio-Rengstorff-del Medio
$1,105,000
113.8%
92.0%
12
Seattle, WA
1
Ravenna
$930,000
108.5%
76.2%
7
2
Montlake
$1,165,000
103.9%
53.3%
8
3
Atlantic
$728,000
101.8%
35.6%
8.5
St. Louis, MO
1
Warson Woods
$445,000
98.9%
25.0%
37
2
Clifton Heights
$174,900
102.1%
57.1%
14
3
Rock Hill
$229,000
100.0%
38.5%
34.5
Tampa, FL
1
Old West Tampa
$216,500
95.4%
8.3%
42.5
2
K Bar Ranch
$369,900
98.3%
8.0%
75
3
Carver City-Lincoln Gardens
$175,500
95.8%
6.7%
23
Tucson, AZ
1
Sabino Springs
$363,000
98.2%
0.0%
118
2
Colonia del Valle
$177,000
97.2%
14.3%
57
3
Keeling
$139,000
97.6%
9.1%
45
Washington, DC
1
Arlington Ridge
$767,000
99.4%
21.9%
30
2
Brentwood / Brookland / Langdon
$589,000
100.1%
43.4%
33
3
Jefferson
$506,250
99.9%
42.6%
34
West Palm Beach, FL
1
Boca West
$130,000
84.2%
2.7%
126
2
Parrot Cove
$332,000
95.2%
0.0%
74
3
Kelsey City
$215,000
94.3%
3.7%
67

 

The post Hot or Not? Redfin Tests the Temperature of January’s Hottest Neighborhood Predictions appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

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