Will London Outstrip NYC by 2030?

London’s current growth rate is impressive, to say the least. The city is a leader in industries such as digital marketing and big data, and its tech sector is growing at a rapid pace. London is currently considered to be the 25th largest city economically in the world, but according to recent data, it’s set to outpace New York City, the second largest city in the world, in a matter of 15 years.

This prediction comes straight out of Oxford Economics from a report that shows how 770 cities will actually expand exponentially by 2030. The factors considered are numerous, but the most prominent are population, employment, household income and spending, and economic output.

“A global outlook gives an unrivalled opportunity for enjoying growth from wherever it comes,” stated Oxford Economics Head of Global Cities Research Richard Holt. He speaks of London’s efforts to take this economic advantage in stride, and improve efforts to maintain it over the next 15 years.

In the comparison of New York and London, the focus is largely on the economic output. Because the British capital’s performance is less dependent on the national economy than New York’s is, London’s expected growth rate is slightly higher. The report shows London with an average rate of 2.9pc over the next 30 years, while New York’s is only 2.6pc. It’s a slight difference, but over a large period of time, it can turn into substantial growth.

With this predicted growth pattern, London has become the fourth fastest-growing city, and its tourism industry is bustling as well. Just ahead of London are the Chinese cities Shanghai, at 5.2 pc, and Beijing at 5 pc. Dubai comes in at number three, surprisingly close to China’s rate of growth. This is another notable rivalry, since economic forecasts have shown India’s growth rate to be consistently high enough that it will soon outpace China as the largest economy in the world.

The main element London has going for it is its larger geographical region. New York City is currently populated with 8.4 million people, but only has a total metro area of 468.9 sq miles. London, on the other hand, is populated with 8.5 million people and has a geographic area of 607 square miles. For that reason, London has more physical room to grow, whereas the tiny island of New York has already expanded its physical limits.

London will also have the advantage of more high income households being created. Currently, the number of households in New York that bring in $250,000 or more is higher than that of London, but NYC’s growth is lagging, while London’s is set to double in just 15 years.

London is just one of two European cities that have made it in the list of top ten fastest growing cities. Paris is also among that list with a forecasted average growth rate of 1.7 percent. Others on the list include Stockholm, Istanbul, Moscow, and Madrid. Shanghai and Beijing are currently the top-performing cities on the list.

The report also showed that growth rates seem to be in the favor of smaller cities rather than larger ones. Some African and Indian cities are actually set to grow faster than even Tokyo, the largest city in the world.

The world’s top 50 cities by gross domestic product (GDP) will also see some changes in the coming decade and a half, as eight European cities are expected to drop from the list and nine new Chinese cities to join the group. The additions will take the number of Chinese cities on the list to 17.

London has been making great headway in the areas of digital marketing, big data, and technology, which has been linked to their growth factors. Their ability to stay ahead of the trends and continue to expand within their geographical area will be integral in maintaining their high growth rates.